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NYA: very similar to SPX. Impossible to tell if this is a completed ‘three’ or ifit will continue lower. The overlap will be the key.
SPX/NYA: to confuse matters both the SPX and NYA show possible three wave declines complete at yesterdays low. This conflicts with the DOW which is suggesting lower (but might be wrong).
*if* the three waves are complete we should expect an overlap rally, but this also conflicts with STD which shows a downwards trend.
I still don’t have a position and I’m content to wait particularly given the differences between the DOW and SPX/NYA.
There will be more opportunities, particularly if we get the overlap.
VIRUS: Germany and France have announced full lockdowns for the month of November, basically shutting down their economies.
The UK looks awful and will likely follow.
The big numbers might of course be exacerbated by the increased amount of testing compared to March/April.
Recent DOW chart copying the NYA ABC big rising wedge. I’m taking the recent rise as a ‘three’ which was truncated from the perfect target (yeah, this silly EW stuff).
NYA: a reminder of my NYA ‘wave C big rising wedge’ chart.
Because NYA touched a new high for the last ‘three up’ I’m going to count the DOW in the same way ie a completed rising wedge.
If all this is true, then NYA will try for the overlap of ‘A’ and it’s likely to be a big three down.
DOW: this decline doesn’t look like a five to my eye, more like a large three.
We got the leading diagonal followed by a c=a down to 27,400. That looks like it was ‘wave A’.
Instead of bouncing to overlap it traded sideways which looks like ‘B’.
Now we’ve got the next move downwards where C=0.618 in the 26,700 area or C=A at 26,100.
26,700 has already been exceeded so all eyes should be on 26,100 as a possible target.
My bull/bear project has this week ‘DDDCC’ but next week there is a change to ‘BB???’ with the ‘???’ days not yet computed but currently being calculated. I need a few days rest.
Well your indicator was certainly correct for this week Chris – even though the charts looked positive over the weekend you said this week should be bearish and it has been.
The three main indices, DOW, SPX, NYA all stopped where a ‘three down’ ABC would qualify. Interesting. However they are at the limit and any trades lower will negate the ABC and leave only the ‘five down’ as a target.
If so, DOW might try for around 26,963 where 3=1.618.
It’s a knife-edge situation.
I don’t have a position and I’m content to wait.
I have today (Wednesday Oct 28) as STD 2.
Yesterday Tuesday STD 1 was neutral to negative, and that might imply a negative trend into Friday.
Interesting how the ‘tone’ of this market appears to have changed. Today MSFT released numbers that smashed all expectations and yet the response in the stock has been muted to negative. Perhaps better to travel…
DOW: and for the DOW one can suggest that the sharp drop was also ‘wave C’ where C=A. Again, if this is correct, the DOW will rally to overlap ‘A’ just above 28,000.
SPX: the alternative view (which I have only just realised) is that the falling wedge was ‘wave A’ and the sudden drop yesterday was ‘wave C’ where C=0.618.
A valid interpretation, and if so SPX will rally for the overlap of ‘A’.
