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“Now, for the traders and investors who read this column for insights into trading and investing, the major geocosmic signatures coming up this week are the Venus/Uranus opposition and Neptune turning direct on November 27–28. Both have correspondence to sharp price moves and reversals.”
VACCINE: interesting comments I’ve seen that the vaccines are actually bad for the markets…! The logic of this is that the virus has propelled markets to new aths due to the massive stimulus money, zero interest rates etc. And the markets continue to move higher expecting more stimulus in December or January.
However, if the vaccines are indeed effective and ‘cure’ the virus problems, then eventually the lockdowns finish, people go back to work, businesses reopen, and hence the need for stimulus is removed. And hence the excess liquidity pushing markets is also removed.
Makes sense to me – a better to travel than arrive situation.
However the virus may accelerate during the winter (as it is doing at the moment) and vaccines might not be generally available for several months. So it’s likely a final round of stimulus will be required during the winter so markets might continue to push higher.
But in the end, once the markets sense that the virus problem is ‘cured’ that is likely to coincide with a peak.
NYSE: the NYA reached 14,000 then had a sharp drop along with other indices.
My minimum target was 14,076 so it got close. I’m not sure the top is in for this move and I’d really like to see it higher even though it got close to the target.
If it does retrace, I’m calling the 14,000 level as just ‘wave 1 of C’ with much higher prices to come.
DOW: the divergence problem also exists in the DOW.
*If* this is wave C upwards (it might not be of course) then we should be expecting and upwards pattern that will give MACD divergence. In order for that to happen the DOW has to peak pretty soon and either plunge or spend time consolidating.
My DOW targets are 30,285, 30,580 and 31,158, any one of which might trigger a peak and reversal (or none of them of course).
NYSE: if my chart of the daily is correct and we are now in C up, there really needs to be divergence in the MACD against the wave A high. The MACD is rising and needs to turn downwards pretty soon otherwise it will likely print a new high.
Price and time targets are close by.
NYSE: the NYA is currently trading at 13,950 or so.
I have three possible targets: 14,076, 14,150 and 14,477.
So NYA is approaching a possible target and reversal area.
TSLA to be included in the S&P 500 from December. Shares up strongly in pre-market.
I imagine there will be further to go given how many index tracking funds and ETFs there are that will now be forced to buy the rather illiquid shares.
Might be a ‘better to travel’ scenario…
Ray Merriman has a target date of Nov 12/13 but with an orb of 11 trading days. That’s not very useful.
Martin Armstrong has Nov 23.
I suppose the two coincide.
I’ll be watching around that time to see if my DOW targets are nearby.
As shown on this chart, if the rising wedge idea is valid we’ll get the higher number of 31,323 or so, but that will be followed by ‘wave b down’ which can go as low as the 27,500 area if it wants to…
DOW: target for the wave B expanded flat is 30,084. I suspect that will be exceeded.
Above that we have around 30,365 for ‘wave 1 up’ then 31,323 for the C=0.618 of a rising wedge.
I suspect the rising wedge number is the one to look for.
EURKRW: against the EUR the Won shows a very similar pattern. It has yet to break the lower rising trendline but it completed the overlap and this current strong move looks like the beginning of C down.
Target is around 900 which is a significant move if it happens (and of course will likely take a year or two).
GBPKRW: with the strength in world equity markets many of the secondary currencies have been rallying as ‘risk on’ money looks for higher returns.
The KRW has improved about 10% against GBP and looks like it wants to go much further in the next year or two.
On the chart it’s a clear ABC, now finishing B and starting C down (I think). The rising lower trendline needs to be broken to indicate further strength. If so, the target is a remarkable 1167 or so…
