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Your feelings were right.
These late sell offs are becoming a habit.
Dipsters often step in but one day they will not.
Full moon thursday
Never give up, never surrender.
Indeed Chris, I much prefer trying to predict intraday than the future.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Stopped out for a few earlier.maybe it is down into the full moon now after all.still think theres a date with higher prices soon though.
Yesterday the broader markets SPX and DOW fell back by about 0.5%, but COMP and NDX both closed about 0.5% higher (cash). MSFT and FB led the way with AMZN positive but lagging.
I commented that SPX likely finished its bear market rally as an ABC to the 0.618 Fib which acted as a magnet and solid resistance (and remains resistance).
In contract COMP and NDX both exceeded the 0.618 and the patterns for both suggest they want to attempt a double top via five wave patterns.
In this chart of COMP one can see that the 0.618 Fib has now acted as support.
Interestingly my calculation of a possible 4th wave for COMP also targets roughly that 0.618 area.
So unless something else happens I still think COMP is trying to complete a wave 3 somewhere in the 9,200 area, followed by a 9% drop back to around 8,500
NASDAQ NDX100: note that on a closing price basis, NDX has already hit 3 = 1.618.
This suggests that although higher intraday prices can be seen (as suggested by the OHLC charts) they might be of the ‘pop and drop’ variety.
This closing price chart shows negative divergence in the RSI and MACD.
So although OHLC charts suggest some further small upside (to the 9,200) that might not materialise, or might be just intra-day highs.
Charts suggest a top is nearby.
NDX100: in the shorter term NDX seems to be forming a ‘five waves up’. At the moment it’s reached an extended 3=2.618. There appears to be a final 5th wave needed.
There are two options here – one, that this ‘five’ is part of a rising wedge, in which case c=a at 9,090, and two, that this is the final peak of the bigger ‘wave 3’, in which case the ‘five’ can finish anywhere between 9,070 and 9,166.
One other point is that wave 2 was ‘short and sharp’ suggesting that the 4th wave under development might be ‘long and flat’ i.e. a triangle or flat thing.
So the target range is 9,070 to 9,166. I’ll be watching for a sharp ‘pop and drop’ given that the closing price chart has already reached its target area.
APOLOGIES – that last NDX chart of mine was INCORRECT. My calculation of the 3=2.618 was wrong.
In fact, 3=2.628 occurred at the 9,000/9,025 area. We then got a 4th wave down followed by a rising wedge final 5th wave higher to the lower edge of my target price area 9,070/9,166. Thus the ‘five wave up’ pattern is complete.
It got pretty close to the possible rising wedge c=a at 9,090, but fell short. Thus the pattern can either be the first part of the rising wedge higher OR the entire big 3rd wave can be complete. Either way, NDX should now enter a correction downwards.
NASDAQ COMP: well just to confuse things I checked my NDX analysis against the NASDAQ COMP. Hmmm… the COMP chart matches my first NDX chart in that it’s showing an exact 3=2.618 followed by a likely 4th wave. In other words the COMP is still suggesting a final 5th wave pop higher.
Who’d be a market analyst! Not me – I’m off to the gym…
BoE band about to play a tune.
GDP expected to slump by 25% in Q2 2020
added to the 3% drop in Q1 2020Gloom and doom but realistic news from The Old Lady
Never give up, never surrender.
I have opened a positional trade to run in the background
as a guard against bearish markets. The stop and limit are
really just there for completeness and subject to change.Small short Ftse at 5865 … stop 6500 … limit 4000
Never give up, never surrender.
Interesting Chris, Good luck.
I have some underwater shorts (were in profit but wanted to run for more down).
Happy to hold off doing anything else until I see the mornings action,
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
In Germany the daily new virus cases rise back
above 1000 for first time in the last six days.I think like people in general market traders
have got over excited about lock down ending.In the UK, for example, I expect business
failures and unemployment to rise, as
details of lock down reversal are known.We are not, if ever, going back to normal.
We are going to create the new normal and
like any birth it will have pain.Never give up, never surrender.
Interesting Chris, Good luck.
I have some underwater shorts (were in profit but wanted to run for more down).
Happy to hold off doing anything else until I see the mornings action,
There will always be some thrashing around during each day
for nimble traders.Bigger picture I expect hatman’s NAS prediction will come
true but there is also a 50/50 chance that many other
stock markets will retest the March lows.Never give up, never surrender.
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