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Bank holiday in UK
Memorial Day in US
Never give up, never surrender.
Next week is rated as ABBCD which in simple
terms indicates a move from Bull to BearNever give up, never surrender.
Last week the Ftse tried to regain 6128 ( 0.50 fib ) level (which it
hit a couple of weeks back) and failed.Which in the context of this move up could be seen as a lower high.
Time is running out and any wave / pattern failure here could spell
the end of the new ath hopes and open the door to a steep decline.Never give up, never surrender.
NYA: the NYSE Index continues to try for the ‘five up’. It’s rather confusing because ‘wave 1’ was an overlapping leading diagonal and it’s difficult to see where that ended.
So one view might be that the five has completed. The alternative is that there’s a final pop higher to come.
I remain of the view that this is ‘wave 1 up of C’ and the gap will not fill.
DOW: like the NYA it’s difficult to say whether this ‘five up’ has completed or not. There was a new slightly higher high Thursday which might be the top of 3 or the 5.
Again the starting first wave was an overlapping affair which makes calculations difficult.
I’ll *guess* that for both Dow and NYA the move hasn’t finished.
NYA DAILY: the NYSE chart is the most straightforward to interpret as it has the clean first abc upwards followed by the B wave overlap. Now it’s rising again and I think it is almost certainly now in C up. Trying to finish wave 1 of C.
Notice the strong support from the 21 day average and I suspect that will again act as support for a wave 2 (hence the gap will not close).
The B wave correction bounced from the overlap line and the 50 day average which has also previously acted as support and resistance. Note that the 50 day has stopped falling and is now curling upwards.
There is absolutely nothing bearish on this chart, and in fact with the market rising above the 21 day it looks bullish and might accelerate upwards when it enters wave 3 of C. Of course these things can change, but for the moment I’ll guess we are trying to finish wave 1, we’ll a small wave 2, and then off to the races in wave 3 of C.
DOW: the DJI is very similar to NYA. The count isn’t perfect because we didn’t get the exact c=a for the first upwards move, and we also didn’t get the overlap for B. Nonetheless I’m counting it the same pattern as NYA.
If so, we are now in C up, trying to complete wave 1. If it completes wave 1 in the 24,900/25,100 area that will then target a double top at the ATH.
Like NYA there is strong support from the 21 day average.
The 50 day is also strong support and is now curling upwards. The Dow doesn’t like life below the 50 day average.
RSI and MACD went sideways in a consolidation for B and are now trying to rise. They are at low levels and there is plenty of room upside.
I don’t know if wave 1 of C has completed (I suspect it hasn’t). We might get a pop to the 24,900/25,100 area then a ‘wave 2’ back down to the 21 day somewhere around 24,400.
But wave 3 upwards beckons and might be a surprisingly strong upwards move.
Naturally something else can happen to change the roadmap, but for the moment it all looks bullish.
Nothing to add re the charts as hatman has given a clear picture.
Timing I can comment on as my stuff indicates a path will
be taken before next weekend.Never give up, never surrender.
i looked at 4 hours dax chart and nothing says it should fall unless it tries for double top EW wise the last consolidation means it should rally more it want to fill the gap that ends at 11447.20 if i get the chance to close it today that i am watching the market i will close my short even for BE or a few point else i will wait for days.
good job i close my dax short it really goes after the gap 11,373.92 high up to now really near to close the gap it looked stupid when i said it goes after the gap hence i did not go long. Does not look stupid now.
i am puzzled with dax ok the FED buys usa stock but why the dax dog rallies ?
Es being ramped in the futures also..its a pain because even though you know its coming.who wants to be long going into a holiday weekend? Anything could happen and u wake up tuesday morning..limit down!🤔
Futures up strongly here in the Far East. Difficult to tell if this is the end of ‘wave 1’ or the beginning of ‘wave 2’. Taking the NYA and DOW charts as the best indicator suggests this is the end of ‘wave 1’.
For the Dow the target area is 24,900/25,100.
Wave 2 should see a retrace back to 24,200/24,400.
21 day moving average is likely to act as strong support on any pullback, currently around 24,000 and rising.
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