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I will not trade again until we hear from hatman once
he gets back from love island.Dow pattern may be something traders do not see, yet.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: well I’m pleased I correctly called that B wave at 27,000. Shame I was away and didn’t participate in the potential profits. Still, there will be other opportunities.
Looking at the shape of all this I am still inclining towards my ‘leading diagonal third wave up’ idea. If so, this drop is the final part of an abc for wave ‘ii’ of the upwards sloping diagonal (see chart).
I can’t be convinced unless the pattern develops into c=a which needs the Dow to drop to the 25,400 area. To do that we need to have had waves 1 thru 3 and a 4th and 5th to come.
Note that this is of course the extreme bullish view based on my ‘leading diagonal’ idea. There are other bearish interpretations.
If it doesn’t complete the c=a then clearly some other pattern is developing.
RUT: the Russell 2000 perhaps gives the cleanest indication that we are in five waves down, with a target of 1420 (currently 1485). 4th and 5th waves are required.
I’m concerned and a little confused by this Russell pattern because until now it was showing a ‘perfect’ waves 1,2 upwards move, which looks like being negated. The ‘perfect’ target for wave 2 was/is 1470, so if it moves down to the 1420 area (highly likely) then the second wave formation might have to develop into a complex sideways irregular flat thing. That would likely fit well with the Dow upwards leading diagonal but will be very confusing.
Until that happens (if at all) a question mark hovers over the RUT 1,2 pattern.
DOW: the bearish view (at least my bearish view) is that we are in a long extended expanded flat for wave 2, where the ‘B’ of the ABC flat was higher by approximately 1.382 (not quite) and that wave ‘C’ will revisit the 24,500/24,700 area taking a long time to do it.
Like the ‘leading diagonal’ idea, Dow still needs to complete a ‘five down’ in this pattern.
I’m less convinced of this idea, partly because of the RUT potential where I think 1420 is likely to be ‘the low’ of a flat second wave. Still, anything can happen.
My Dow 2007 model called for 27650 on 6th October and as
that is a sunday, friday 4th or monday 7th will do.We are not going to see the price but I have not given
up on the time.S4H today with possible spill down.
NFP with possible fireworks for futures.
I expect this rally off thursday’s low is a dead cat
bounce and I will be brave and short it later.Never give up, never surrender.
My Dow 2007 model called for 27650 on 6th October and as
that is a sunday, friday 4th or monday 7th will do.I posted this price and time many months ago.
Not the ath but atleast we have rallied into this weekend.
What the market does after this time window remains to be seen.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: it looks like the Dow is trying to overlap the resistance at 26,700, which would make this an abc down. On the chart I’ve shown what *might* be the upwards count from the low as an abc. I’m not sure about this, but if correct it measures to 26,701 which would be the slight overlap.
I’ve also shown the STD days, but I’m not sure if this is correct. Cimac perhaps you could clarify.
Friday 4th October was S4
Your chart looks right to me with this rally about done.
Never give up, never surrender.
I’ve changed the chart to reflect the correct STD days. Monday and Tuesday will be ‘3’ and ‘4’. I suspect it will try to continue the sequence to overlap 26,700.
Yes hatman.
I still have faith that my 6th October ( +/- the usual 2 days )
does form a ‘h’.I will not get new ath at 27650
In 2007 the ath was not a clean 5 way rally.
I suspect the market has a surprise up it’s sleeve
which we want to avoid if it’s a bad one !Goodluck to us all.
Never give up, never surrender.
US – China trade talks due to start on 10th October.
I wonder if China may play hard ball with Trump as
the latter has impeachment swirling around. With
the former thinking a change of president either
now or more likely in November 2020 elections.
Would be of huge benefit to them.China can play the long game in this trade war.
Never give up, never surrender.
Small short Dow at 26300 … stop 28500 … limit 18000 ( x 2 )
Closed at 26200
Never give up, never surrender.
Yes hatman.
I still have faith that my 6th October ( +/- the usual 2 days )
does form a ‘h’.I will not get new ath at 27650
In 2007 the ath was not a clean 5 way rally.
I suspect the market has a surprise up it’s sleeve
which we want to avoid if it’s a bad one !Goodluck to us all.
I did get ‘a’ drop and took the profit.
Not bad for an amatur
Never give up, never surrender.
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