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Where are we now after another week where the bears
got caught in yet another trap ?We have the bulls who have called all year for an s&p price
circa 2150 and that must still have a chance.I have seen 30th Jan and 5th Feb 2015 mentioned as the high
window of this bull market by xref two forms of analysis.We have two bullish seasonal factors (but check the dates
as it’s not all bullish) at Thanks Giving and Christmas.The only bearish analysis left standing seems to be the
one which has an ‘h’ now, in line with OE and Bradley
and the new moon, with a decline into 20th Dec.Day trade with care for the rest of 2014 😉
Never give up, never surrender.
As you all know my Ftse plan is to try and maintain a small
short to cover any surprise downside. I have mentioned
an upside risk to 7000-7200 and a downside to 6000-3500
and that has to be factored into stops and margin plans.Nextweek for the Ftse I start with a bias of DDUDU with
no daily price targets. As the Ftse will not move alone
one would expect the US markets to do the same but
note the Thanks Giving holiday would give DDU_U and
even with the friday as a half day it does rather
indicate US markets will end November on a uptick.Never give up, never surrender.
Opened a small Ftse short at 6750 and could well run
this in the background well into 2015 as per the
plan to cover the surprised downside whilst
day trading whatever we are given to trade.Not much to say now until we have Thanks Giving out
of the way and see market levels for November end
and December start.Never give up, never surrender.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>baaa wrote:</div>
dipsters will be looking for a 3pt pullback to buy the expiry ramp into the close…lol must be about time for another draghi speech or perhaps Abe’s 31st arrow shorted the open & will short the close if it’s over 2072.u still holding earlier shorts baaa or did u cut them.
still got the 2040 shorts and a few from 2020 ….sadly
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-24/us-stocks-surge-best-streak-86-years
The last few weeks have been the strongest and most consistent rallies in US equity market history. US equity markets have traded above their 5-day moving average for 27 days – the longest such streak since March 1928
Back in 1928 it was a mania. It wasn’t QE nonsense if I have read my history well.
Therefore I would argue it is much  less likely we get a massive rally like then before the decline starts. Or is that what I hope? Spoos will be 3200 otherwise!
One of the comments says just three down days this November and the best was 0.3%. That after a bullish second half of October too.
If spoos ends this year with a double digit rise then history
favours another double digit rise in 2015.
Also the presidential yearly cycle favours a bullish 2015.That’s what the stats favour but you have to get the lower
odds outcomes some of the time to create a balance.Never give up, never surrender.
Share buy backs have pushed US markets up but that
is a longer term topping signal as companies have
no plans to invest and expand for the future.Don’t go all in on short side until we get clear
signs we have topped out. Atm that is not now
but worth watching end of Jan – early Feb of
2015 for a ‘possible’ top.Never give up, never surrender.
From the reports I read open interest is short sided
on s&p which suggests we go higher. But sometimes
the ‘many’ are right and that happens at cits.Also most markets players are retail as the larger
guys got out at 2013 highs.I don’t see the numbers, just read those who do.
Never give up, never surrender.
Lastly a market built on sand, as this one is, would need
a good dose of fear to turn it. Ebola, Ukraine, ISIS, we do
have enough candidates to get things going down
and then the fundementals of a real world economy which
is likely to struggle for real growth into 2025, atleast, will
kick in and we get a huge drop. Then the large sidelined
money will buy in, the retail guy will be washed out, all imho.Never give up, never surrender.
I am watching the Dax and wondering if it can regain 10k which
does seem to be a worthwhile question. If it does, why would
it stop there. Also that would drag Ftse to 6900 and why
would it stop there. Odds do favour this outcome as
traders seem to think the EcB will announce some
more qe type action, this side of Christmas.Never give up, never surrender.
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