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SYSTEMS FOR FRIDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2013
Hi all,
Recap ….
Intraday wise …. I banked 10 points in spoos today.
I have 1 short in Ftse & 17 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.
Onto today …
KP
None in play.KTB
We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 24/10/2013.
TODAY IS DAY1.KTS
We have a KTS triggered at close on 18/10/2013.
It is now negated after DAY4.SYSTEM BDIP
None in play.DDUD
We have a DDUD season triggered at close on 11/07/2013.
It is now negated after DAY2.SYSTEMS TRIGGERED
SYSTEM ESL1
MORE CHANCE OF DOWNSIDE THAN UPSIDE, USUALLY TRADE POSITIVE AT SOME POINT, NORMALLY GET -3, IF NO -3 THEN RARELY CLOSE AT HIGHS, UPSIDE UNSUSTAINABLE & CLOSE WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE DAY. CHANCES OF -7, -10 & -17 ALSO. THE CLOSE CAN BE VERY ERRATIC. ALSO AFTER THIS SYSTEM THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A -3 THE NEXT DAYSYSTEM ES3
SHOULD GET -3. UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE UNSUSTAINABLE. LOWS TRADED SHOULD BE LOWER THAN HIGH TRADED, SHOULD NOT CLOSE AT HIGHS, IF WE TRADE < -3 CHANCE OF -7, -10.SYSTEM 136
SYSTEMSPX3
SHOULD GET -3/-5. IF SPX TRADES < +3 HIGH THEN CHANCE OF TRENDING DOWNSpoos closed at 1748.75 (basis Dec)
K+3 = 1751.75
K -3 = 1745.75
Conclusion
We have NO KHC SYSTEMS in play.
We also have a KTB2 DAY1 in play.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Thursday was another spot on full house day and managed to bank 10 points out of it.
I feel I should have done better with the call, but no worries.
So where now?
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Its a tough call as its a crooksday.
I appreciate we have a KTB2, but with TREND UP I am not going to take much notice of it without other factors.
I am not going to place a trade overnight
For now it needs to break 1744 intraday to fall. Until then onwards and upwards.
Lets see where we are in the morning
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
I am so glad I ignored the KTB2 for now.
However as it is a (2) it can be a drop and pop. It is crooksday also today.
Therefore long at the -5 at 1743.50
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
I use these guys here in Dublin for betting trades on S&P futures. SHELBOURNEMARKETS
They were the Irish arm of Marketspreads but there was a split and court row with UK arm (who went wallop) and the Irish Company is now rebranded as Shelbournemarkets and re-capitalised.
They trade in EUROS which removes any currency exposure for me.
They charge margin of only € 400 per mini contract = €5 bet = € 50 per spoo point.
I would personally recommend you have €5k to back one contract as that leverage, while tempting can kill you.
I do it all online. No problems so far. Lodge margin via my Credit Card or Bank.
Get bank money transfer direct to my bank account when I need.
All fwiw.
UPDATE FROM SHELBOURNEMARKETS see link
Last May, when the S&P500 moved above 1650 for the first time ever, in this column it was noted that NYSE margin debt also surpassed an all-time high of $380 billion. In the meantime, whilst the S&P 500 continued to make fresh highs, debt margin figures stabilised, and showed no increase to the end of August. This week’s release of the September NYSE debt margin, however, shows margin debt up over 5% in the month to a new all-time high of $401 billion.
The chart below shows NYSE margin debt levels (white curve) and the S&P 500 (yellow) dating back to 1997. Noticeably, as can be seen from the chart, whilst high margin debt levels coincided with major market tops of 2000 and 2007, in both instances debt levels began to turn downwards before the market. Whilst September’s data will allay fears of a debt-reversing peak in the market, a leverage figure of $401 billion will serve to remind the market that if a reversal does takes hold, there may well be a long queue of sellers.
all above FWIW . Lordia
Good luck to all. Maybe the Bear will return soon
I am so glad I ignored the KTB2 for now. However as it is a (2) it can be a drop and pop. It is crooksday also today. Therefore long at the -5 at 1743.50
A perfect KTB2. Got a drop and pop.
Closing 1743.50 long here for 5 points profit.
It may go up more but soon I will be quite bearish on this market. It may be treading water just because of FOMC, nothing else.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
well the pop and drop continued.
So fine with the crooksday up and WNER day up bias into FED.
This should imo be a final push before a decent 30 point minimum retrace. (could be more)
However then we need to be on guard for possible xmas rally although I personally think by then worry will be back on for fiscal cliff pollux
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
SU level 1747 now.
I was so tempted to short the db top at 1753 but missed it.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Well its a risk but trading always is.
So here goes, short 1749.50.
The simple and only problem with it is that today is crooksday and Monday is WNER.
Apart from that this looks like a good trade to me, so I have to take it.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
SU level now 1748.
MS is a donkey on the edge for a short
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Well MS triggered (in MS thread) but yet this is doing exactly as though, being a perky mustard on crooksday.
No reason for this other than crooksday. On a normal day MS would pull it down.
Worse still DAY2 is WNER monday but I am in and lets see.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Yawn.
Su level and intraday cit level now 1749
Only a crookshour can break this
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Just wrote a post and iphone crashes. I have to say the reliability and stability of bith my iphone and ipad are cr&p.
anyway… I was in summary asking ‘can you see how big the paper gold market is?’ So that when shorts get squeezed one day we have an idea what’s in play… 🙂
I will look into that Dan for you.
As for bludy crooks, proper crookshour yet again.
I really should no better to bet against this in crookshour on crooksday.
It was another day when intraday cit level or su level did not break down.
No idea what the news will be to give us an MS DAY2 print of 1745.50 or will it fail due to WNER.
Looking forward to it but in the meantime, time to chill.
Have a great weekend all
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
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