Hi all,

Recap ….

Intraday wise …. I banked 0 points in spoos today.

I have 1 short in Ftse & 19 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.

Onto today …

KP
None in play.

KTB

We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 24/10/2013.
IT IS NOW NEGATED AFTER DAY4.

KTS

We have a KTS triggered at close on 31/10/2013.
It is now negated after DAY6.

SYSTEM BDIP

We have a BDIP triggered at close on 13/11/2013.
TODAY IS DAY2.

DAY1… We got a low of -1.25.
DAY2…
DAY3…
DAY4…

We have a BDIP triggered at close on 08/11/2013.
It is now negated after DAY4.

DAY1… We got a low of -3.25.
DAY2… We got a low of -9.00.
DAY3… We got a low of -10.75.
DAY4… We got a low of -1.25.

We have a BDIP triggered at close.
It is now negated after DAY4.
DAY1… We got a low of -12.25.
DAY2… We got a low of -0.75.
DAY3… We got a low of -23.00.
DAY4… We got a low of -9.00.

DDUD
We have a DDUD season triggered at close on 11/07/2013.
It is now negated after DAY2.

SYSTEMS TRIGGERED

ESL1 NEXT DAY
GOOD CHANCE OF A -3

ESH
USUALLY GET +3 AND -3. MORE CHANCE OF -3. NORMALLY IS A DOJI TYPE DAY WITHIN +5 AND -5. TRADING < -5 GIVES CHANCE TO SD DAY

ESL2
USUALLY GIVES -4/-7

SYSTEM ES3
SHOULD GET -3. UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE UNSUSTAINABLE. LOWS TRADED SHOULD BE LOWER THAN HIGH TRADED, SHOULD NOT CLOSE AT HIGHS, IF WE TRADE < -3 CHANCE OF -7, -10.

SYSTEM ES7
POSSIBLE DOJI DAY, CAN BE WHIPPY AND UNTRADEABLE, ANY GAP UP OPEN SHOULD FILL THE SAME DAY. ITS NOT A SU MARKET AND RARELY MAKES MUCH PROGRESS.

ES8B

SYSTEM 59

SYSTEM 62
MORE DOWNSIDE THAN UPSIDE. USUALLY GIVES -3,-5. RARELY CLOSES AT HIGHS. EVEN WHEN THE SYSTEM FAILS YOU SEEM TO GET A SPOOS -2.

SYSTEMSPX3
SHOULD GET -3/-5. IF SPX TRADES < +3 HIGH THEN CHANCE OF TRENDING DOWN

SPX 7B

SYSTEM SPXL1
VERY ERRATIC SYSTEM IN TERMS OF HIGH/LOW/CLOSE. USUALLY IS A DOJI DAY WITHIN +5 / -5. TRADING > +5 USUALLY CLOSES POSITIVE, TRADING < -5 CLOSES NEGATIVE. THAT’S WHEN IT BECOMES A TRENDING SYSTEM

Spoos closed at 1787.75 (basis Dec)

K+3 = 1790.75

K-3 = 1784.75

Conclusion

We have NO KHC SYSTEMS in play. Any gap up open should be filled on the same day as per ES3 and ES7.

We have a BDIP DAY2 in play.

Looking for a -5/-7 today despite it being crooksday.

Also MS triggered short at close at 1788 (missed it) but its not far from that now.

Target there is 1783.

Lets see but I am short from 1785.75 already as a day position and will add if its higher in the morning.

More in the morning.

Good night

I think thats a great trade Dan even if it is a crooksday and you go out first.

Short 1792 for a gap fill later basis MS

I am pretty sure both ES and SPX should be an undershoot of 1800 leading to a minimum 30 point breakdown.

The problem is today is crooksday and Monday WNER and week after week we know that shorting for a down move on those days has been rather futile.

However my bias today of a gap fill and possible -5/-7 remains for now today.

MS short into close tells us that.

Target remains 1783 for today

The question is do I close at gap fill or run to 1783 MS target?

FWIW I am pretty sure both ES and SPX should be an undershoot of 1800 leading to a minimum 30 point breakdown. The problem is today is crooksday and Monday WNER and week after week we know that shorting for a down move on those days has been rather futile. However my bias today of a gap fill and possible -5/-7 remains for now today. MS short into close tells us that. Target remains 1783 for today

There goes my idea of an post-opex retrace :

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Almost $5.75 billion MONDAY (x2 WNER)

$3.5 billion Wednesday

$5.25 billion Thursday

Good luck shorting into that wall of money. I’d say 1800+ was on the crooks card…

Sadly I did not close despite having 4 points profit.

We shall see, MS should be a madnet really