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With one captain in prison and another on the high seas
let’s go back to a monthly thread.Never give up, never surrender.
US 4th July party is over but is the party over for stocks ?
Never give up, never surrender.
Project Bull/Bear rates 6th7th8th9th10th as BBCCC
which shows a drift from bullish to bearish and
not the Bull or Bear each side wanted.Never give up, never surrender.
I’m not on the high seas at the moment as Korea is just starting its rainy season. Every year around July we get two to three weeks of sometimes torrential rain rather like a monsoon. The rain at times is really rather exciting. During this short period Korea will get about 70% of its entire annual rainfall.
Clearly not sailing weather…
However I’m also not really in the markets due to uncertain patterns (at least uncertain for me) and I regard the risk of error as too high.
DOW: it bounced (again) from the important 50MA and went back up to test the 21 day average from below. It got rejected there. It also touched the 200 day from below.
One can see from the chart that the Dow is being gradually squeezed between the lower 50 day (rising) and the higher 21 and 200 (both falling).
It might be trying for a sideways triangle thing that will eventually resolve upwards or downwards with quite a sharp sudden move. I’m not clever enough to be able to guess which way (and it would be a guess, which is not conducive to risk/reward management).
Ever since Credit Crunch I in 2008 we have lived with
this unnatural low inflation and low interest rates.The covid19 response has now created even more debt
which could and will be resolved by inflation.Let’s say 5% for 10 years or 10% for 5 years.
Never give up, never surrender.
Project Bull/Bear rates 6th7th8th9th10th as BBCCC
which shows a drift from bullish to bearish and
not the Bull or Bear each side wanted.We have the bullish start.
Never give up, never surrender.
DOW: looking at the Dow daily chart again, one can see that the 21 day MA is around 26,000 and the 200 day is at 26,250.
Futures are currently trading in that resistance band.
The cash market might suffer another rejection from that area, OR, an upwards break would of course be bullish.
SPX: unlike the Dow, SPX is trading above its 200 day MA. A bullish sign is that it has already tested that MA from above and continued rising.
The 200 MA is also now rising, and a ‘golden cross’ is approaching where the 50 crosses the 200 when both are rising.
Apart from some divergence in the RSI and MACD I really can’t see anything that is bearish about this chart, and I’m inclined to think it will trend gently higher into August.
Would not need much to break this mini range.
Never give up, never surrender.
Well,the gap is now closed finally.it can fall from here…the trouble is,like hatman says,the charts dont look like wanting to.
Little bit of red in the futures but its so easily reversed.its so uncomfortable trying to hold short for anything more than an hour..maybe thats one of the few signs that a drop could be on the horizon.Trying to find a form of analysis that looks forward is
something we continue to work on.Anything works in the rear view mirror.
Never give up, never surrender.
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