• This topic has 211 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 3 years ago by cimac.
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  • #32834
    cimac
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      Small short gbp:usd at 1.3300

      Risky trade.

      Based on the Powell 3 way reaction.

      I have been asked to find an STD trade plan for FX.

      This is a 24/7 kind of futures type market and not cash as per STD stocks.

      A way to concentrate my mind is to trade FX

      Quite a task but a new challenge for me.

      Never give up, never surrender.

      #32835
      cimac
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        I have been asked to find an STD trade plan for FX.

        This is a 24/7 kind of futures type market and not cash as per STD stocks.

        A way to concentrate my mind is to trade FX

        Quite a task but a new challenge for me.

        First task close my gbp:usd short !

        Never give up, never surrender.

        #32836
        cimac
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          Small short Dow at 28725 … stop 30000 … limit 24000

          S1H friday bookends S4H monday
          The ‘normal’ is for bullish friday == bullish monday

          Never give up, never surrender.

          #32837
          hatman
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            SPX is approaching my revised target of 3,516.  Yes, it will probably spill over into Monday.

            The first few days of a new month are often bullish as new money enters the market.  However, I’ve seen September start off both strong and weak.  The boys return from their summer holidays and volume increases.  If they see high prices a wave of selling/profit taking can ensue.

            Am I brave enough to short my target?  Probably not the most sensible action given this rampant market.  A peak and reversal – at least some sign of weakness is needed.

            #32838
            cimac
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              Market tops on fridays are not common but
              then we have seen black mondays.

              UK holiday monday 31st Aug
              US holiday monday 7th Sept

              Never give up, never surrender.

              #32839
              hatman
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                DXY:  the target for the dollar trade weighted index is still 91 or so (actually nearer to 90.5).

                The pattern seems to be tracing out a 4th wave (of C) and perhaps declining in an overlapping 5th,

                There seems to be a correlation between the strength of the equities markets and the decline in the dollar.  Something to do with all the dollar printing by the fed (excess supply).

                It’s possible that a bottom and reversal in DXY will coincide with a top and reversal for equities.

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                #32841
                hatman
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                  SPXDXY:  on this chart I’m trying to show that there is some correlation between DXY and SPX.  Note the period of B wave DXY correction which coincided with the SPX B wave.

                  This suggests (guess) that an equity market correction will start when/if the DXY reaches the 91 target.

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                  #32843
                  cimac
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                    I think that is a nice positional trade over a 1 yr window
                    with the option to take profits as and when you want.

                    Sell US stocks and buy dollars.

                    I am short the Dow at 28725 now I need to buy dollars.

                    Never give up, never surrender.

                    #32844
                    cimac
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                      Summer soon to be autumn !

                      UK Treasury Department want tax hikes to boost the public finances
                      hit by covid19 … Sunday Times and The Telegraph

                      £30bn tax raid on the wealthy, businesses, pensions and foreign aid.

                      November budget.

                      Never give up, never surrender.

                      #32847
                      hatman
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                        SPX:  just a repeat of my recent SPX chart which shows a nice count to 3,516.

                        If it goes above 3,516 the next target is in the 3,545 area.  The problem with that is that the ‘fives’ pattern would look disjointed and probably invalid.

                        So:  3,516 the most likely.  Above that something else is happening.

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                        #32849
                        cimac
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                          Small short Dow at 28725 … stop 30000 … limit 24000

                          S1H friday bookends S4H monday
                          The ‘normal’ is for bullish friday == bullish monday

                          Closed at 28625

                          Never give up, never surrender.

                          #32850
                          cimac
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                            Wow … those Dow longs got fried … too many in that boat !

                            Spx longs were had over as well !

                            Never give up, never surrender.

                            #32851
                            cimac
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                              Today the lean is S4H after spill down to complete
                              a virtual S3L sunday.

                              Once S4H pt8 (h) is sealed it will be a bun fight for the close.

                              Never give up, never surrender.

                              #32852
                              cimac
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                                I am with hatman in that I would not buy into any move
                                that did not reverse both US stocks and US dollar.

                                No positions for me atm.

                                Never give up, never surrender.

                                #32853
                                cimac
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                                  I want to short gbp:usd at 1.3400 1.3450 1.3500

                                  Never give up, never surrender.

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