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SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY 8TH JULY 2015
Hi all,
Recap ….
Intraday wise …. I banked 0 points in Spoos today.
I have 2 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.
Onto today …
KP
None in play.KTB
We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 02/07/2015.
TODAY IS DAY3.KTS
We have a KTS5 triggered at close on 19/06/2015.
It is now negated after DAY9 at close on 02/07/2015.SYSTEM BDIP
None in play.DDUD
We have a DDUD Season triggered at close on 01/07/2015.
TODAY IS DAY4.SYSTEMS TRIGGERED
ESL1 NEXT DAY
GOOD CHANCE OF A -3ESH
USUALLY GET +3 AND -3. MORE CHANCE OF -3. NORMALLY IS A DOJI TYPE DAY WITHIN +5 AND -5. TRADING < -5 GIVES CHANCE TO SD DAYESL2
USUALLY GIVES -4/-7SYSTEM 70 (KHC +3)
USUALLY GIVES +3SYSTEM 72 (KHC +3)
SHOULD GET +3,+5 POSSIBLY MORE. DOWNSIDE USUALLY LIMITED TO -5.SYSTEM 80
USUALLY GET -3. IF IT GAPS UP OPEN, THEN USUALLY NOT MUCH DOWNSIDE PAST -3 AND CAN CLOSE +VE. USUALLY DOES NOT CLOSE AT HIGHS. SMALL CHANCE OF BEING A DDDD DAYSYSTEM 81 (KHC+3)
USUALLY GIVES +3,+5SYSTEM SPXF
MORE CHANCE OF A +3 THAN A -3. IF SPX GAPS DOWN THEN IT USUALLY NEGATES THE POSITIVE CALL AND CAN BE A NEGATIVE SYSTEMSYSTEM SPXL1
VERY ERRATIC SYSTEM IN TERMS OF HIGH/LOW/CLOSE. USUALLY IS A DOJI DAY WITHIN +5 / -5. TRADING > +5 USUALLY CLOSES POSITIVE, TRADING < -5 CLOSES NEGATIVE. THAT’S WHEN IT BECOMES A TRENDING SYSTEMSpoos closed at 2073.75 (basis Sep)
K+3 = 2076.75
K-3 = 2070.75
Conclusion
We have 3 KHC+3 SYSTEMS in play.
We have a KTB DAY3 & DDUD SEASON DAY4 in play.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
SYSTEMS TRIGGERED ON TUESDAY 30/06/2015
ESL1 ND
ESA (KHC+3)
ESH1
SYSTEM 65 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 70 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 81A (KHC-5)
SYSTEM 101 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 110 (KHC+3)
SPXH1
SPX2
SPX5EWe also had KTS DAY7 in play.
SYSTEMS TRIGGERED ON WEDNESDAY 01/07/2015
ESH1 ND (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 81A ND (KHC+5)
ESB
ESH2 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 70 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 72 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 80
SYSTEM 102 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 111 (KHC+3)
SPXB
SPXH1We also had KTS DAY8 in play.
SYSTEMS TRIGGERED ON THURSDAY 02/07/2015
ESH2 ND (KHC+3)
ESH
ESL1
ES4A
SYSTEM 70 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 72 (KHC+3)
SPXL1
SPX4A
SPX10We also had KTS DAY9 & DDUD Season DAY1 in play.
SYSTEMS TRIGGERED ON FRIDAY 3RD & MONDAY 06/07/2015
ESL1 ND
ESG (KHC+3)
ESH1
SYSTEM 70 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 72 (KHC+3)
SPXGWe also had KTB DAY1 AND DDUD Season DAY2.
SYSTEMS TRIGGERED ON TUESDAY 07/07/2015
ESH1 ND (KHC+3)
ESL1
ES16A
SYSTEM 70 (KHC+3)
SYSTEM 72 (KHC+3)
SPXL1We also had KTB DAY2 AND DDUD Season DAY3.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Please do read the post above with all the SYSTEMS triggered whilst I was away.
You will note that a KTB triggered at Thursday close for Friday/Monday for DAY1
Also DDUD season triggered at Wednesday close, for Thursday DAY1.
Thats all really interesting.
Moreover we had ESG/SPXG in play for Friday/Monday and maybe that was the mad pull back up from the lows on Monday.
Shame I missed this fun but thats why I named a SYSTEM called KGOS, as this always happens when I go away.
I closed all my recent shorts on the way down basis 204x print, inc. IBEX. I did short Tuesday mornings open as per plan posted earlier and closed that too basis 204x.x print.
My IBEX short also went as posted on the big spike down on Monday morning.
I remain short 2 very old ES positions that are just running and have been rolled over indefinitely.
I am short from Tuesday evening at 2071.25.
I closed Soybeans and Corn long after the mad spikes up, as I just had to bank the profit whilst away.
I am now long Gold, Silver and Copper for the longer term.
I have also converted some of my Cash in Euro’s (physical) at 140.12, as the last time I did a similar trade was changing GBP into USD at 2.03.
Thats about all I can update for now and looking forward to being back and posting again
Lets all look forward to continued successful trading here at Kpad
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Closed 2071.75 short at 2051 for 20.75 points.
It definitely feels good to be back.
Well done Nigel too. Hope you are having a good profitable time trading this
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
China down another 5.74%
However the spoos now will probably ignore that.
The KTB intruges me, although its kept the market bouncing back up and not sticking at lows, its not taken off.
I have looked back and I often see that in scenario’s like this, the KTB fails and should be negated. This is the action of a BEAR MARKET.
As it stands we are neither on trigger for another KTB or KTS.
Personally I am going to ignore the KTB and play DDUD and the SYSTEMS and intraday commentary instead.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Greeks now have until Sunday to agree a deal or be kicked out of the Euro.
Seems we are goign to get another very mad Sunday night globex open.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Makes sense basis DDUD N, but not a trade for me.
Sure I would have got 2040 ish on the two occasions we did that and both gave 40 points profit, so for me unless I am bullish, that trade is done.
There are definitive reasons to be bullish ie.
- 200 DMA spike with tail
- 204x print area holding
- DDUD season will switch from low to high prints to just SU at some stage.
However this Greece situation is pretty dire and I want to see how it plays out or SYSTEMS to back the long.
I agree with you though its a very good punt to try longs (but high risk)
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
Closed another one of my older ES shorts from 2076 here at 2044 for 32 points.
That leaves me with just 3 running ES shorts now, my lowest number in a very long time.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
My next closest is a 2050 short from 26th March.
I am incredibly keen to close this one too but want to see a capitulation low. I may well have got that already whilst I was away as its just a feeling you have of total fear watching this. Sadly I was not here and hence have no idea how to grade that fear.
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
K, are you seeing some kind of short/medium term bottom here? I have some FTSE shorts still running from 7000 and I’m wondering if I should close here or hold as a swing short. Thanks.
Its a very tough call here Anis.
Really my post above re: longs covers it.
I think yes 2040 ES was a bounce area but I see we did two 40 point bounces from there.
Therefore that maybe done now and we may need to see circa 1980 next.
Personally I would take 1/2 shorts off and run half if I was you basis 2040 ES.
You will get a chance to put back on when it breaks 2040 ES.
Personally I think Greece will get a deal by Sunday, I see no Grexit yet (I do later on). For now the can will be kicked down the road and a compromise will be reached.
That will create a massive reaction rally and we can then go to 2100 on ES and possibly beyond, before more down.
Its bounced 8 points since I typed that and 12 points from the lows.
As I said to N above
I agree with you though its a very good punt to try longs (but high risk)
Plan your trade, trade your plan!
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