Hi all,

Recap ….

Intraday wise …. I banked 0 points in ES today.

I have 1 long in oil, 7 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.

Onto today …

KP
None in play.

KTB
We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 14/10/2014.
It is now negated after DAY6.

KTS
We have a KTS5 triggered at close on 22/10/2014.
TODAY IS DAY1.

SYSTEM BDIP

None in play.

DDUD
We have a DDUD Season triggered at close on 02/10/2014.
TODAY IS DAY15.

SYSTEMS TRIGGERED

ESL6 ND

SYSTEM ESG (KHC+3)
SHOULD GET +3 MINIMUM, CAN GO TO +5,+7,+10.

SYSTEM ESH1
MORE CHANCE OF UPSIDE THAN DOWNSIDE, USUALLY TRADE -VE AT SOME POINT, NORMALLY GET +3, IF NO +3 THEN RARELY CLOSES AT LOWS, DOWNSIDE UNSUSTAINABLE. CHANCES OF +5, +7 ALSO. ALSO THE CLOSE CAN BE VERY ERRATIC. AFTER THIS SYSTEM THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A +3 THE NEXT DAY

SYSTEM 70 (KHC +3)
USUALLY GIVES +3

SYSTEM 72 (KHC +3)
SHOULD GET +3,+5 POSSIBLY MORE. DOWNSIDE USUALLY LIMITED TO -5.

ES90
DOWNSIDE SHOULD BE MORE THAN UPSIDE. USUALLY PRINTS LITTLE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE CAN BE -5, -7. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN +6 AND GOOD CHANCE OF A NEGATIVE CLOSE.

SYSTEM 130
ANY GAP UP OPEN SHOULD BE FILLED

SYSTEM SPXG
More chance of upside than downside. Usually get +3,Trading > +3 SPX = chances of +5, +7,+10. Could also gap up open.

SYSTEMSPXH1
CAN GIVE +3,+5,+7 WITH A POSITIVE CLOSE. THE CLUE IS NOT TRADING MUCH NEGATIVE RTH

Spoos closed at 1925.75 (basis Dec)

K+3 = 1928.75

K-3 = 1922.75

Conclusion

We have 3 KHC+3 SYSTEMS in play. Any gap up open should fill the same day as per SYSTEM130.

We also have A KTS5 DAY1 & DDUD Season DAY15 in play.

Sorry Kman, let you get in your thoughts now…

THE KTS AND WHAT ONE CAN EXPECT
The characteristics are usually a small pop (not necessary) the next morning, followed by a drop and a -3. This is a phenomenon of the Bull phase (2003 onwards)
Where we gap up open, then upside becomes unsustainable and we nearly always gap fill. In the old days (pre March 2003 Bear) it was just simply a drop and drop to -3 and beyond.

Any KTS targets? Well in the old days (Bear) it could drop 60-80 handles pretty fast. Recently (in the Bull) it has been pretty useless and just been a small CIT for minimum 10-15 points from today’s high. The max drawdown should be no more than 12 points from the trigger day close price.

The KTS has had failures since March 03 if you are looking for an immediate down the next day. However when a KTS fires its always an early warning for a CIT and could be a multi day pop and drop. Ie up on DAY1 but then down on DAY2.

Since March 03, its always been a pop and drop and gives you a spoos -3 minimum. Therefore waiting until the next day can give you a better price (ie short the pop before the drop). You can get a +3,+5,+7 maybe even +10 to short the next day. Was not the case pre March 03, but has become a characteristic since.
Where it fails to sometimes give a -3 (but rarely fails to pop and drop) is when it triggers on a large downday. Those days it could rally to +3/+5,+7 and then drop back. Also when it triggers on a large downday, those days could be when we get the multiday pop and drop.

Nearly always a KTS was a CIT. However when it failed to immediately trend down on the first KTS, it was sometimes followed by another KTS after a few days and that was the immediate nail in the coffin.

Problem is sometimes the drawdown was 10-20 points on the First KTS, before the next one.

Nearly always if it went up and did not give the -3 after the trigger, then next day was quite a nice down day.

Therefore I look to short the POP for the KTS once I see a good entry the next day.

best regards to all
lordia

Navnit

gfs borderline too… That would be some fill!