Hi all,

Recap ….

Intraday wise …. I banked 7.50 points in spoos today.

I have 1 short in Ftse & 20 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.

Onto today …

KP
None in play.

KTB

We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 01/10/2013.
IT IS NOW NEGATED AFTER DAY1.

KTS

We have a KTS triggered at close on 18/10/2013.
TODAY IS DAY1.

SYSTEM BDIP
We have a BDIP triggered at close on 14/10/2013.
It is now negated after DAY4.

DAY1… We got a low of -14.75.
DAY2… We got a low of -1.00.
DAY3… We got a low of -7.50.
DAY4… We got a low of -0.75.

We have a BDIP triggered at close on 10/10/2013.
It is now negated after DAY4.

DAY1… We got a low of -12.00.
DAY2… We got a low of -18.25.
DAY3… We got a low of -14.75.
DAY4… We got a low of -1.00.

DDUD
We have a DDUD season triggered at close on 11/07/2013.
It is now negated after DAY2.

SYSTEMS TRIGGERED

ESL2 NEXT DAY (KHC-4)
GIVES -4/ -7

ESHB

ESL3 (KHC-5)
SHOULD GET A GOOD NEGATIVE PRINT . DOES NOT ALWAYS CLOSE AT LOWS.

SYSTEM 73

SYSTEM 80
USUALLY GET -3. IF IT GAPS UP OPEN, THEN USUALLY NOT MUCH DOWNSIDE PAST -3 AND CAN CLOSE +VE. USUALLY DOES NOT CLOSE AT HIGHS. SMALL CHANCE OF BEING A DDDD DAY

ES93

ES96
UPSIDE USUALLY CONTAINED TO A +3, ANYMORE IS UNSUSTAINABLE, USUALLY GIVES -3 AS A MINIMUM

SYSTEM 132
SHOULD GET A -3/ -5

SPX3B
SHOULD GET +3/+5, -3/-5. DOJI TYPE DAY WITH A CLOSE WITHIN THAT RANGE

SPX4A

SYSTEM SPX9

SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH UPSIDE PROGRESS, IF LOW < -3 GOOD CHANCE OF NEGATIVE CLOSE. ANY GAP OPEN SHOULD FILL THE SAME DAY.

SPX96 (KHC-3)
MORE DOWNSIDE THAN UPSIDE, NORMALLY GIVES A MINIMUM OF -3 BUT OFTEN GIVES -5,-7, GOOD CHANCE OF -VE CLOSE, CHANCE OF A GAP DOWN OPEN, THEN TRENDING DOWN DAY, UPSIDE NOT VERY SUSTAINABLE ,NEVER CLOSED > 6.38 AND THAT WAS AN EXCEPTION.

Spoos closed at 1736.50  (basis Dec)

K+3 = 1739.50

K -3 = 1733.50

Conclusion

We have 1 KHC-3, 1 KHC-4 & 1 KHC-5 SYSTEMS in play.

We also have a KTS DAY1 in play.

New kts too…. 🙂

Well Friday was crooksday true to form. Just a continuation of the GRIND in a TREND UP SU MARKET

Managed to bank 7.50 points but have a 1735 and 1739 short running.

Could have closed both earlier but was not here and in anycase need to run for MS and a bit of a retrace now.

DAY SHORTS wise … I still have Thursdays shorts also from lower down.

Its not good or easy playing this market currently as it is too overextended for me to long without a dip and shorts are just not rewarded currently with easy

So where now?

KTS suggests a -5/-7

MS DAY2 target is 1734.

-3 is 1733.50

-5 is 1731.50

-7 is 1729.50

However WNER / MAD MODE suggests it will be bought back up and may even close positive unchanged. My guess is a doji type day.

Resistance is at 1740/3 and above that 1747.

Support is at 1734/5 and then 1729. Below that it can start to fall further.

Good luck

We could even fall back to a 170x.x print and still be bullish, so if there is a bit of panic, that can be a target.

VIX/VXN is back to lows again (a point where it usually pings back up. If so markets can fall some)

For downside we need to continue to have high TRIN.

Although we are overextended and pre QE MAD MODE’s it meant we should fall. in QE it has just been a rest / grind up. Therefore the fact we are overextended alone is a reason for it to just carry and and become more overextended