Hi all,

Recap ….

Intraday wise …. I banked 0 points in spoos today.

I have 1 short in Ftse & 19 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.

Onto today …

KP
None in play.

KTB

We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 24/10/2013.
IT IS NOW NEGATED AFTER DAY4.

KTS

We have a KTS triggered at close on 26/11/2013.
It is now negated after DAY5.

SYSTEM BDIP

We have a BDIP triggered at close on 04/12/2013.
TODAY IS DAY2.

DAY1… We got a low of -10.00.
DAY2…
DAY3…
DAY4…

We have a BDIP triggered at close on 02/12/2013.
TODAY IS DAY4.

DAY1… We got a low of -14.00.
DAY2… We got a low of -13.75.
DAY3… We got a low of -10.00.
DAY4…

DDUD

We have a DDUD season triggered at close on 11/07/2013.
It is now negated after DAY2.

SYSTEMS TRIGGERED

ESL1 NEXT DAY
GOOD CHANCE OF A -3

ESC
CAN GET A +3 BUT SHOULD GET A -3. CHANCES OF -5, -7, -10

SYSTEM ESH1
MORE CHANCE OF UPSIDE THAN DOWNSIDE, USUALLY TRADE -VE AT SOME POINT, NORMALLY GET +3, IF NO +3 THEN RARELY CLOSES AT LOWS, DOWNSIDE UNSUSTAINABLE. CHANCES OF +5, +7 ALSO. ALSO THE CLOSE CAN BE VERY ERRATIC. AFTER THIS SYSTEM THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A +3 THE NEXT DAY,

ES5
SHOULD GET +3,+5 BUT RARELY CLOSES AT HIGHS

ES 5B
CAN GIVE UPTO +5 & -5. INITIAL DIRECTION IS USUALLY A FADE.

ES 5C (KHC+3)
USUALLY GIVE A +3 AND CLOSES POSITIVE. RARELY CLOSES AT LOWS

SYSTEM ES8 (KHC+3)
MORE CHANCE OF UPSIDE THAN DOWNSIDE. USUALLY GIVES A +3.

SYSTEM 81 (KHC+3)
USUALLY GIVES +3,+5

ES100 (KHC +3)
SHOULD GET +3, ONCE PAST +3 SHOULD GO ON TO POSSIBLE +5/+7/+10. UPSIDE SHOULD BE MORE THAN DOWNSIDE

SPXC
Spx <-4 should give big down -7/-10. Likewise <+3 high will trade negative and close negative. Conclusion may be short +2 Spx. Rarely closes at highs

SYSTEM SPX7A (KHC +3)
SHOULD GET +3/+5

Spoos closed at 1784 (basis Dec)

K+3 = 1787

K-3 = 1781

Conclusion

We have 5 KHC+3 SYSTEMS in play.

We have a BDIP DAY2 AND a BDIP DAY4 in play.

This was a combination of not being here initially and suffering form this FLU.

However I have “planted a seed” and am DAY SHORT 1787 for a n initial MS target of 1780.

So where now?

Well it is NFP’s crooksday today. Oh what fun.

MS target is 1780.

SYSTEMS are mega bullish but actually the SYSTEMS triggered are also those when we have had big downs and CRASH MODE.

There is a high probability of a DDDD print on Friday.

In theory the SYSTEMS can pull us up and then BDIP’s back down. Whether crooksday it inverts on bad NFP’s and then they buy it who knows.

Either way it implies a good range and volatility.

For me if MS prints and we bank points basis MS trades, that is great

Ideally need to hold 1790. If that breaks up, the worry is that it can all break back up.

Support is 1778 and then 1775. Below that it can fall.

Lets see.

Good luck

We just hit 1790 from the above MUST HOLD resistance.

Am I mad to run a profitable trade into NFP’s crooksday?

It would not be the first time for that, NFP’s are just such a stupid randomiser.

Its nothing to do with the figures, all to do with the reaction.

Lets see what happens

Added to short 1795 as its completely stupid to spike up like it did and it hit 1797 area yet again

Sheer madness.

Bludy hell.

We have an MS target and at some point soon it will print.

4 days to retrace and back up in 1 day.

I think this sells off.

I am prepared to add short again if need be in RTH