Hi all,

Recap ….

Intraday wise …. I banked 8.50 points in spoos today.

I have 1 short in Ftse & 13 shorts in spoos and 2 swing positions open.

Onto today …

KP
None in play.

KTB

We have a KTB2 triggered at close on 01/10/2013.
IT IS NOW NEGATED AFTER DAY1.

KTS

We have a KTS5 triggered at close on 03/10/2013.
TODAY IS DAY1.

SYSTEM BDIP
We have a BDIP triggered at close on 02/10/2013.
TODAY IS DAY2.

DAY1… We got a low of -20.25.
DAY2…
DAY3…
DAY4…

DDUD
We have a DDUD season triggered at close on 11/07/2013.
It is now negated after DAY2.

SYSTEMS TRIGGERED

ESL3 ND
SHOULD GIVE A -3

SYSTEM ESA (KHC+3)
SHOULD GET +3/+5/+7, HOWEVER IT CAN BE AFTER A DRAWDOWN, CLUE IS TRADING > +2.

SYSTEM ESH1
MORE CHANCE OF UPSIDE THAN DOWNSIDE, USUALLY TRADE -VE AT SOME POINT, NORMALLY GET +3, IF NO +3 THEN RARELY CLOSES AT LOWS, DOWNSIDE UNSUSTAINABLE. CHANCES OF +5, +7 ALSO. ALSO THE CLOSE CAN BE VERY ERRATIC. AFTER THIS SYSTEM THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A +3 THE NEXT DAY,

ES 5C (KHC+3)
USUALLY GIVE A +3 AND CLOSES POSITIVE. RARELY CLOSES AT LOWS

ES18 (KHC+3)
GOOD CHANCE GAP UP OPEN, LOW TRADE -3 POSSIBLE, VERY GOOD CHANCE OF +VE CLOSE AND NEAR HIGHS, CHANCE OF +5,+7,+10

SYSTEM 81A (KHC-5)
USUALLY GIVES A BIG NEGATIVE PRINT AND CLOSES NEGATIVE, BUT IT CAN BE VIA A +3/+5

SPX 19 (KHC+3)
SHOULD GIVE +3/ +5. POSSIBLE GAP & GO DAY.

SYSTEMSPXH1
CAN GIVE +3,+5,+7 WITH A POSITIVE CLOSE. THE CLUE IS NOT TRADING MUCH NEGATIVE RTH

Spoos closed at 1669 (basis Dec)

K+3 = 1672

K -3 = 1666

Conclusion

We have 4 KHC+3 & 1 KHC-5 SYSTEMS in play.

We also have a BDIP DAY2 and KTS5 DAY1 in play.

So where now?

NFP’s have been cancelled today due to US Government pollux

SYSTEMS wise we have a magnitude of +ve KHC’s which suggest a +3/+5 minimum but against that we also have a KTS and BDIP in play (bearish combo)

The KTS is a KTS5 which can often lead to a pop on DAY1 and then drop on DAY2 or intraday pop and drop.

Resistance to is 1675/7 area. Above that resistance is at 1680 and above that it can try for a rally.

Support is at 1663 below which it will continue to make lower lows.

As it stands I may short 1677/80 but probably do nothing until RTH

NFPS “cancelled” – I wonder when want do tehm be nice if aroud D DaY 17th OCt debt ceiling time

ALso saw a bit about that shooting Car /woman ( baby saved) On news. Must say Security forces Cops etc Even with this LOCKDWON 2no PAY” where there adn DId their 2JOB2 and I bet Fat cats wafflking inside Senators etc alll with Full pay booze nd Lunches. I was just thinking WHY did they Not disable teh car by Just knock out teh tyres and cathc her alive etc.

SPOOS S1H day inclined at moment

NEW MOON – market can Go Looney

Good Luck to us all

rgds

Zarif

Any views out there?

This is because the more you do, the more chance of making a loss or getting stuck.

For me it is all about is all about winning and not getting stuck nowadays.

However to answer your question, I think it depends on your view of the USD. The USD remains in downtrend and if they default or close to, then USD will fall further quickly.

For me on GBP/USD, circa 1.6300 is a must hold. Although I do not believe it can, if that goes then it can get to 1.7xx.

SO if you want to play it your stop will need to be circa 1.6300. (wide range of resistance from 1.6270/1.6350)

I hope that helps, but if you got any other questions, please ask away.

I currently hold two cable shorts both in profit for once one with 160 pips and other with 125, stops at break even.

Daily RSI 14 has a long way to go but the 2Hr, 1Hr and 30 min are way oversold.

Do I take profit or do I not, as my biggest problem is I always cut my winners too soon and let my losers run.