<b>For now hostilities are off the agenda in Syria thanks in no small part to Russia’s vested interests in the region – they very rarely do anything altruistically if ever… The markets however still have a few “minor” skirmishes to contend with, as we contemplate the approach of Halloween, and in no particular order they are; tapering, who will lead the Fed when we say good riddance to Bernanke in January and the small matter of the debt ceiling.</b>
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<b>The first two are done deals; accommodation of the third will require some heroic pork barrelling by senators and congressmen alike, who are forever in debt to their corporate benefactors; a fact they will be reminded of daily by the lobbying fraternity. For every member of the legislature there are five Washington lobbyists. When you consider that donations to political parties and candidates are effectively unlimited does that number really surprise you. Equally quite how the powers that be can insist that America is run on democratic principles is frankly beyond me.</b>
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<b>And sitting above this unholy trinity is the banking system where the real power lies. One hundred years ago the Federal Reserve was brought into existence and it has been undermining the monetary system ever since. The value of a dollar has been eroded almost completely since then so you can’t really disagree with that statement can you? The Fed is a private company owned by the banks; Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley – you get the picture. It’s a fact that the chairman is appointed by the President, but when those same bankers can demand and get $750 billion (TARP money) “or else” what objection is he going to raise?</b>
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<b>Janet Yellen is an academic and looked to be the favourite only a few short months ago, but she was not connected to, nor had any particular love for, the banksters, but was keen to maintain the monetary policy status quo. So with perfect timing the story was put about that Obama wanted someone to change all that and good old Larry Summers was just your man. He is not a GS alumni, but his mentor Robert Rubin most definitely was and between the two of them they persuaded Bill Clinton that regulation of the derivatives market was unnecessary (Greenspan concurred). He was also instrumental in the repeal of the 1933 Glass–Steagall Act which allowed investment and commercial banking operations to be co-mingled. Both initiatives arguably accelerated if not directly caused the financial meltdown. With this kind of influence, does Obarmy have a choice?</b>
<b>This leaves the question of tapering. The Fed have all but painted themselves in, but the likelihood is that the first cut will be modest, just $10 billion, and more importantly guidance will suggest that it will remain at this level until the Fed sees some “further” signs of improvement in the economy, which will not happen until Ben has received his gold watch in 2014.</b>
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<b>And while we wait to see the markets’ reactions to these battles here’s a quotation to be getting on with from someone who did meet his Waterloo. <i>”When a government is dependent upon the bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”</i>- Napoleon Bonaparte CH</b>