Gordon,
We are still in the bear market which started in March 2000 and probably won’t end until late 2015 or 2016, which history shows is within the normal length window for a bear market. The decline may not start in earnest until early 2014 and should last at least 18 months, maybe two years. Then the next bull market starts. As for the coming decline, impossible to say how deep it might go but if it’s only 10% the Fed should be ecstatic. I would expect at least double that.